{"id":2932,"date":"2024-03-13T06:29:15","date_gmt":"2024-03-13T06:29:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/editorial.buluttan.com\/?p=2932"},"modified":"2024-03-25T02:42:38","modified_gmt":"2024-03-25T02:42:38","slug":"hava-tahmin-dogrulugu-nasil-olculur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/editorial.buluttan.com\/?p=2932","title":{"rendered":"Hava Tahmin Do\u011frulu\u011fu Nas\u0131l \u00d6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Hava tahmininde do\u011fruluk bir\u00e7ok farkl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rde olan tahminlere benzer bir \u015fekilde \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclmektedir.<strong> <\/strong>Bu da hava tahminin do\u011frulu\u011funun belirli istatiksel \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerle yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Tahminlerin do\u011frulu\u011funun hesaplanmas\u0131 bir sonraki tahminlerde nas\u0131l bir yol izlenmesi gerekti\u011fi hakk\u0131nda fikir vermektedir. Kafa kar\u0131\u015f\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 minimize etmek i\u00e7in birbiriyle kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lan \u201cdo\u011fruluk\u201d ve \u201chassasiyet\u201d terimlerinin ne olup ne olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na bakal\u0131m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"492\" src=\"https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/hassasiyet-vs-accuracy-1024x492.webp\" alt=\"hassasiyet vs accuracy\" class=\"wp-image-3029\" srcset=\"https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/hassasiyet-vs-accuracy-1024x492.webp 1024w, https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/hassasiyet-vs-accuracy-300x144.webp 300w, https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/hassasiyet-vs-accuracy-768x369.webp 768w, https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/hassasiyet-vs-accuracy-1536x737.webp 1536w, https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/hassasiyet-vs-accuracy-1568x753.webp 1568w, https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/hassasiyet-vs-accuracy.webp 2000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Do\u011fruluk ve Hassasiyet<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><h3><strong>Do\u011fruluk<\/strong><\/h3><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Do\u011fruluk, sonucun hedeflenen de\u011fere ne kadar yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu \u00f6l\u00e7er.<strong> <\/strong>Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle, hedefledi\u011finiz \u015feye ne kadar yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. Stratejik bir hedef veya ki\u015fisel bir ba\u015far\u0131 olsun, y\u00fcksek do\u011fruluk, hedef de\u011ferinize tam olarak ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck do\u011fruluk ise hedeften \u00e7ok uzakta oldu\u011funuzdur. Do\u011frulu\u011fu tek bir olaydan sonra belirleyebilirsiniz, ancak bu uzun vadeli bir ba\u015far\u0131 olarak s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi belirlemek i\u00e7in tekrarlanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><h3><strong>Hassasiyet<\/strong><\/h3><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hassasiyet, sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n birbirine ne kadar yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu \u00f6l\u00e7er. Do\u011fruluk bir kez kullan\u0131labilirken, hassasiyet zaman i\u00e7inde \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr. Bu, hassasiyetin her \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm k\u00fcmesi aras\u0131ndaki yak\u0131nl\u0131k derecesini belirlemek i\u00e7in tekrarlanmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektirmesinden kaynaklan\u0131r. Y\u00fcksek hassasiyet, sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n birbirine benzer oldu\u011fu durumdur, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck hassasiyet ise sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n birbirinden \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 oldu\u011fu durumdur.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Do\u011frulu\u011fun ne oldu\u011funu ve hassasiyetten fark\u0131n\u0131 <strong>anlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131za<\/strong> g\u00f6re do\u011frulu\u011fu \u00f6l\u00e7menin neden gerekli oldu\u011funa bakal\u0131m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Do\u011frulu\u011fu \u00d6l\u00e7mek Neden \u00d6nemli<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Tahmin S\u00fcrecini \u0130yile\u015ftirme:<\/strong> Tahmin do\u011frulu\u011funu izlemek, hava tahmini do\u011frulu\u011funu art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in ne zaman ayarlamalar yapabileceklerini \u00f6\u011frenerek genel tahmin s\u00fcrecini iyile\u015ftirebilir.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Tahminleri Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma:<\/strong> <strong>S\u00fcrekli olarak<\/strong> do\u011fruluk izlemek, \u015firketlere tahmin do\u011fruluklar\u0131n\u0131 kendi sekt\u00f6rlerindeki di\u011fer \u015firketlerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in k\u0131yaslama verileri sa\u011flayabilir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Hava Tahmin Do\u011frulu\u011fu Nas\u0131l \u00d6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Hava tahmini do\u011frulu\u011fu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcrken gereken en \u00f6nemli \u015fey ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen(g\u00f6zlenen) hava bilgisine sahip olmakt\u0131r. Tahmin do\u011frulu\u011funu \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in se\u00e7ebilece\u011finiz bir\u00e7ok y\u00f6ntem olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, verilerinize dayanarak size de\u011ferli i\u00e7g\u00f6r\u00fcler sa\u011flayabilecek iki yayg\u0131n y\u00f6ntem vard\u0131r. Bu iki y\u00f6ntem \u015funlard\u0131r:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"492\" src=\"https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/mape-hesaplama-1024x492.webp\" alt=\"mape hesaplama\" class=\"wp-image-3027\" srcset=\"https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/mape-hesaplama-1024x492.webp 1024w, https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/mape-hesaplama-300x144.webp 300w, https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/mape-hesaplama-768x369.webp 768w, https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/mape-hesaplama-1536x737.webp 1536w, https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/mape-hesaplama-1568x753.webp 1568w, https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/mape-hesaplama.webp 2000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Ortalama Mutlak Y\u00fczde Hata (MAPE)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Ortalama mutlak y\u00fczde hata (MAPE), tahmin hatalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde cinsinden ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er. Bu, bir\u00e7ok insan\u0131n tahmin do\u011frulu\u011funu y\u00fczde cinsinden anlayabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in kullan\u0131\u015fl\u0131 bir do\u011fruluk \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fcd\u00fcr. \u00d6rne\u011fin, %3,50&#8217;lik bir MAPE, g\u00f6zlemlenmi\u015f<strong> <\/strong>ve tahmini veri aras\u0131nda %3,50&#8217;lik bir fark oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterir. Genellikle daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir MAPE, daha y\u00fcksek bir tahmin do\u011frulu\u011funu g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"492\" src=\"https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/mad-hesaplama-1024x492.webp\" alt=\"mad hesaplama\" class=\"wp-image-3025\" srcset=\"https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/mad-hesaplama-1024x492.webp 1024w, https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/mad-hesaplama-300x144.webp 300w, https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/mad-hesaplama-768x369.webp 768w, https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/mad-hesaplama-1536x737.webp 1536w, https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/mad-hesaplama-1568x753.webp 1568w, https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/03\/mad-hesaplama.webp 2000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Ortalama Mutlak Sapma (MAD)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Ortalama mutlak sapma (MAD), MAPE&#8217;ye benzer, ancak tahmin hatalar\u0131n\u0131n birim cinsinden ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er. Bu, ger\u00e7ek say\u0131lar\u0131 ve tek bir \u00f6\u011fe i\u00e7in projeksiyonlu tahminleri kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda kullanabilece\u011finiz iyi bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>3 zaman ad\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a kolay g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor de\u011fil mi? Hava tahmini geli\u015fen teknoloji sayesinde artan hesaplama g\u00fcc\u00fcyle hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar do\u011fru. Fakat atmosferin kaotik yap\u0131s\u0131 hava tahmininin kesinli\u011fi konusunda olduk\u00e7a b\u00fcy\u00fck bir engel. Bunun \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ebilmek i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fckl\u00fc ve yapay zeka iyi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmi\u015f bir hava zek\u00e2s\u0131 partneri olarak Buluttan her end\u00fcstri i\u00e7in \u00f6zel olarak tasarlanm\u0131\u015f hava \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlerini size sunmaktan mutluluk duyar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Buluttan: Y\u00fcksek Do\u011fruluklu Bir Hava Zek\u00e2s\u0131 Partneri<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.buluttan.com\/tr\">Buluttan Hava Zek\u00e2s\u0131<\/a>\u2019n\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek do\u011fruluklu ve \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fckl\u00fc hiper-yerel hava tahminleri sayesinde i\u015fletmeniz i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenilir ve zaman\u0131nda meteorolojik bilgilere ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131na olanak tan\u0131r.<strong> <\/strong>100m \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe kadar \u00e7\u0131kabilen modellerimizin do\u011frulu\u011fuyla varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131z ve ekibiniz beklenmedik hava olaylar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar g\u00fcvende.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.buluttan.com\/tr#product-api\">Buluttan API<\/a> ile ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131z olan meteorolojik parametreler sizin i\u00e7in d\u00fczenli aral\u0131klarla sa\u011flanabilir. Herhangi bir kazada hasar g\u00f6ren sigortal\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnleriniz i\u00e7in ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f bir a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hava olay\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulama imkan\u0131na sahip olabilirsiniz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.buluttan.com\/tr#product-skywatch\">Buluttan SkyWatch<\/a> ile saha operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netirken sahada \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan ekibiniz de web tabanl\u0131 ve mobil uyumlu bir \u015fiddetli hava durumu kontrol paneline eri\u015febilirler. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.buluttan.com\/tr#product-maplayer\">Buluttan Map Layer<\/a> ile lojistik operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131zda hem s\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcze hem de dispe\u00e7lere yol \u00fczerindeki hava risklerini anl\u0131k olarak bildirebilir ve bunlara kar\u015f\u0131 proaktif yakla\u015f\u0131mlar geli\u015ftirilmesine olanak tan\u0131yabilirsiniz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hava tahmininde do\u011fruluk bir\u00e7ok farkl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rde olan tahminlere benzer bir \u015fekilde \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclmektedir. Bu da hava tahminin do\u011frulu\u011funun belirli istatiksel \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerle yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Tahminlerin do\u011frulu\u011funun hesaplanmas\u0131 bir sonraki tahminlerde nas\u0131l bir yol izlenmesi gerekti\u011fi hakk\u0131nda fikir vermektedir. Kafa kar\u0131\u015f\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 minimize etmek i\u00e7in birbiriyle kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lan \u201cdo\u011fruluk\u201d ve \u201chassasiyet\u201d terimlerinin ne olup ne olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na bakal\u0131m. Do\u011fruluk ve&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/editorial.buluttan.com\/?p=2932\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Hava Tahmin Do\u011frulu\u011fu Nas\u0131l \u00d6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr?<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2962,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[7],"class_list":["post-2932","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hava-durumu","tag-tr","entry"],"acf":{"h1_tag":"Do\u011fruluk ve Hassasiyetin Fark\u0131 ve Hava Tahminlerinde Do\u011frulu\u011fun \u00d6nemi"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Hava Tahmin Do\u011frulu\u011fu Nas\u0131l \u00d6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr? - Buluttan Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Hava tahminlerinde do\u011frulu\u011fun ve hassasiyetin fark\u0131n\u0131, \u00f6nemini ve nas\u0131l \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc Buluttan Hava Zek\u00e2s\u0131 ile ke\u015ffedin.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hava Tahmin Do\u011frulu\u011fu Nas\u0131l \u00d6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr? 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