{"id":3252,"date":"2024-04-15T07:31:53","date_gmt":"2024-04-15T07:31:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/editorial.buluttan.com\/?p=3252"},"modified":"2024-04-15T09:58:05","modified_gmt":"2024-04-15T09:58:05","slug":"hava-tahminin-dunu-bugunu-ve-yarini","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/editorial.buluttan.com\/?p=3252","title":{"rendered":"Hava Tahminin D\u00fcn\u00fc, Bug\u00fcn\u00fc ve Yar\u0131n\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"clouds<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u0130nsanl\u0131k Neden Havay\u0131 Tahmin Etmek \u0130stedi<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meteoroloji, yani atmosfer bilimi, ad\u0131n\u0131 Yunanca \u201cMeteoron<\/a>\u201d kelimesinden alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u201cMeteoron\u201d, g\u00f6ky\u00fcz\u00fcnde olan biten olaylar anlam\u0131na gelir. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n her yerinde bir hareket oldu\u011fu gibi, atmosferde de olaylar s\u00fcrekli bir ak\u0131\u015f i\u00e7indedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130nsanl\u0131k tarihi boyunca hava olaylar\u0131, hava durumu insanlar i\u00e7in hep \u00f6nemliydi. \u00c7ift\u00e7ilik ve denizcilik gibi faaliyetler i\u00e7in ise kritik \u00f6neme sahipti, bu y\u00fczden d\u00f6nemin insanlar\u0131 havay\u0131 anlamaya ve gelecek g\u00fcnlerde havan\u0131n nas\u0131l olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131lar. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde de bu ihtiya\u00e7 artarak devam etmekte. Neyse ki insanl\u0131k olarak art\u0131k sadece varsay\u0131mlar \u00fczerinden konu\u015fmuyoruz ve \u00e7ok daha geli\u015fmi\u015f bir teknolojiye sahibiz. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meteorolojinin d\u00fcnden bug\u00fcne yolculu\u011funu ve gelecekte bizi nelerin bekledi\u011fini birlikte inceleyelim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"aristotales<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Mant\u0131k ve Nedensellik Yeterli De\u011fil<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

M\u00d6 650 civar\u0131nda, Babilliler bulut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmlerine dayanarak hava de\u011fi\u015fikliklerini tahmin etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131lar. G\u00fcne\u015f veya ay \u00e7evresindeki halelerin so\u011fuk hava cephesini i\u015faret etti\u011fini<\/a> ve yakla\u015fan hava de\u011fi\u015fikliklerini haber verdi\u011fini fark ettiler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00d6 340 civar\u0131nda, \u00fcnl\u00fc filozof Aristoteles “Meteorologica<\/a>” adl\u0131 ilk meteoroloji kitab\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131. Hava olaylar\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri k\u0131smen do\u011fru olsa da, meteorolojinin kaotik do\u011fas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00e7o\u011funlukla yanl\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00d6 300’lere gelindi\u011finde, \u00c7inli g\u00f6kbilimciler hava t\u00fcrleriyle ili\u015fkilendirilmi\u015f 24 festival i\u00e7eren bir takvim kulland\u0131lar. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu gibi y\u00f6ntemler her ne kadar zaman\u0131 i\u00e7in ilgin\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceler olsa da inan\u0131lmaz derece kaotik olan bir sistem olan atmosferi \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a yetersizdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"da<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

R\u00f6nesans Havay\u0131 da Etkiledi<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Y\u00fczy\u0131llar boyunca, genel hava durumu bilgilerine ve ki\u015fisel g\u00f6zlemlere dayal\u0131 tahminler \u00fcretmek i\u00e7in giri\u015fimlerde bulunuldu. Bununla birlikte, R\u00f6nesans’\u0131n sonunda, filozoflar\u0131n sadece mant\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n yetersiz oldu\u011fu ve atmosferi daha iyi anlamak i\u00e7in daha fazla bilginin gerekli oldu\u011fu giderek daha belirgin h\u00e2le geldi. Bu bilgileri elde etmenin yolu ise \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclmeliydiler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bunu yapmak i\u00e7in atmosferdeki nem, s\u0131cakl\u0131k ve bas\u0131n\u00e7 gibi parametreleri \u00f6l\u00e7en aletlere ihtiya\u00e7 vard\u0131. Bat\u0131 medeniyetinde, havan\u0131n nemini \u00f6l\u00e7en bir alet olan bir \u201cHigrometre\u201d i\u00e7in bilinen ilk tasar\u0131m, on be\u015finci y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ortalar\u0131nda Nicholas Cusa<\/a> taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Galileo Galilei<\/a>, 1590\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llarda s\u0131cakl\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7ebilmek i\u00e7in ismine sonrada \u201cTermoskop\u201d denilen aleti icat etti. 1600\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131, termodinamik yani nesnelerin \u0131s\u0131 ve s\u0131cakl\u0131k davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131, enerjinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 y\u0131l sonra 1643 y\u0131l\u0131nda atmosfer bas\u0131nc\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7emeye yarayan \u201cBarometre\u201d Evangelista Torricelli taraf\u0131ndan icat edildi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"telegraph\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Telekom\u00fcnikasyon ile Herkes \u0130\u00e7in Meteoroloji<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Bu meteorolojik ara\u00e7lar on yedinci y\u00fczy\u0131ldan on dokuzuncu y\u00fczy\u0131la kadar imal edilirken, g\u00f6zlemsel teorik bilgiler ve teknolojik geli\u015fmeler de atmosfer hakk\u0131nda bildiklerimize katk\u0131da bulundu. D\u00fcnya’n\u0131n farkl\u0131 yerlerinde ya\u015fayan bireyler atmosferik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmler yapmaya ve kaydetmeye ba\u015flad\u0131lar. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On dokuzuncu y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ortalar\u0131nda telgraf\u0131n icad\u0131yla<\/a> hava durumu g\u00f6zlemlerinin g\u00f6zlemcilere ve derleyicilere rutin olarak iletilmesine olanak sa\u011flad\u0131. Bu veriler kullan\u0131larak, pek ayr\u0131nt\u0131 olmayan hava haritalar\u0131 \u00e7izildi. Y\u00fczey r\u00fczg\u00e2r davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve f\u0131rt\u0131na sistemleri tan\u0131mlan\u0131p incelenebildi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Radyosonda ile D\u00fc\u015fey G\u00f6zlemler<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Geni\u015f bir alanda e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak al\u0131nan bir\u00e7ok g\u00f6zlemin derlenmesine ve analizine dayanan sinoptik hava tahmininin do\u011fu\u015fu, 1860\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llarda hava durumu g\u00f6zlem istasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti. On dokuzuncu ve yirminci y\u00fczy\u0131llarda b\u00f6lgesel ve k\u00fcresel meteorolojik g\u00f6zlem a\u011flar\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fumuyla birlikte, g\u00f6zleme dayal\u0131 hava tahmini i\u00e7in daha fazla veri elde edilmekteydi. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

1920’lerde radyosondan\u0131n icad\u0131yla<\/a> \u00e7e\u015fitli y\u00fcksekliklerde havay\u0131 izleme konusunda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ad\u0131m at\u0131ld\u0131. Hava durumu aletleri ve bir radyo vericisi ile donat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck hafif bir kutu olan radyosondalar, ortalama 30 kilometre y\u00fcksekli\u011fe \u00e7\u0131kan hidrojen veya helyum dolu bir balon taraf\u0131ndan atmosfere ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131rken y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u0131ras\u0131nda sens\u00f6rler s\u0131cakl\u0131k, nem ve bas\u0131n\u00e7 verilerini \u00f6l\u00e7erek yer istasyonuna iletir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yer istasyonunda, veriler i\u015flenir ve atmosferin d\u00fc\u015fey profili \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131l\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca bu veriler hava durumu haritalar\u0131 olu\u015fturmak veya hava tahmini i\u00e7in bilgisayar modellerine yerle\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir hale getirilmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"numerical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Numerik Hava Tahmin Modelleri \u0130le \u00c7ok Daha Ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 Tahminler<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Numerik hava tahmini (NWP)<\/a>, atmosfer ve okyanuslar\u0131n matematiksel modellerini kullanarak mevcut hava ko\u015fullar\u0131na dayanarak hava tahmini yap\u0131lmas\u0131na olanak tan\u0131r. 1920’lerde ilk denemeler yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, 1950’lerde ENIAC bilgisayar\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla numerik hava tahminleri ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i sonu\u00e7lar \u00fcretmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Farkl\u0131 \u00fclkelerde bir\u00e7ok k\u00fcresel ve b\u00f6lgesel tahmin modeli \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu modeller, radyosondlar, hava uydular\u0131 ve di\u011fer g\u00f6zlem sistemlerinden iletilen mevcut hava g\u00f6zlemlerini ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 ko\u015fulu olarak kullanarak ilerleyen zamandaki havan\u0131n hareketini tahmin etmektedir. Numerik hava tahmini modellerinde farkl\u0131 meteorolojik de\u011fi\u015fkenler farkl\u0131 zaman s\u00fcreleri i\u00e7in tahmin edilirken farkl\u0131 algoritmalar ve kabuller kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"numerical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yapay Zek\u00e2 + Numerik Hava Tahmini = Hava Zek\u00e2s\u0131<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Yapay Zeka (AI)<\/a>, uydular ve hava istasyonlar\u0131 gibi kaynaklardan gelen geni\u015f veri miktar\u0131n\u0131 i\u015fleyerek, tarihsel hava verilerindeki desenleri ve ili\u015fkileri tan\u0131mlar. Karma\u015f\u0131k atmosferik s\u00fcre\u00e7leri sim\u00fcle ederek hava tahminlerinin do\u011frulu\u011funun art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir rol oynamaktad\u0131r. Yapay zeka ile g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmi\u015f numerik hava tahmini hava zek\u00e2s\u0131 olarak adland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. Hava zek\u00e2s\u0131<\/a> a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hava olaylar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 proaktif \u00f6nlem al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flar ve bir\u00e7ok end\u00fcstride<\/a> karar verme s\u00fcrecini destekler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0130nsanl\u0131k Neden Havay\u0131 Tahmin Etmek \u0130stedi Meteoroloji, yani atmosfer bilimi, ad\u0131n\u0131 Yunanca \u201cMeteoron\u201d kelimesinden alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u201cMeteoron\u201d, g\u00f6ky\u00fcz\u00fcnde olan biten olaylar anlam\u0131na gelir. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n her yerinde bir hareket oldu\u011fu gibi, atmosferde de olaylar s\u00fcrekli bir ak\u0131\u015f i\u00e7indedir. \u0130nsanl\u0131k tarihi boyunca hava olaylar\u0131, hava durumu insanlar i\u00e7in hep \u00f6nemliydi. \u00c7ift\u00e7ilik ve denizcilik gibi faaliyetler i\u00e7in ise kritik… Continue reading Hava Tahminin D\u00fcn\u00fc, Bug\u00fcn\u00fc ve Yar\u0131n\u0131<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3275,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[7,46],"class_list":["post-3252","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hava-durumu","tag-tr","tag-hava-zekasi","entry"],"acf":{"h1_tag":"Buluttan Hava Zek\u00e2s\u0131 ile Hava Tahminin Ge\u00e7mi\u015ften G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcze Yolculu\u011fu"},"yoast_head":"\nHava Tahminin D\u00fcn\u00fc, Bug\u00fcn\u00fc ve Yar\u0131n\u0131 - Buluttan Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Buluttan Hava Zek\u00e2s\u0131 ile hava tahminin ge\u00e7mi\u015ften g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcze ge\u00e7irdi\u011fi de\u011fi\u015fimi ve geli\u015fimini ke\u015ffedin.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hava Tahminin D\u00fcn\u00fc, Bug\u00fcn\u00fc ve Yar\u0131n\u0131 - 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