{"id":3334,"date":"2024-04-18T07:42:58","date_gmt":"2024-04-18T07:42:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/editorial.buluttan.com\/?p=3334"},"modified":"2024-04-18T07:50:13","modified_gmt":"2024-04-18T07:50:13","slug":"hava-tahminlerinin-performansini-nasil-degerlendirilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/editorial.buluttan.com\/?p=3334","title":{"rendered":"Hava Tahminlerinin Performans\u0131n\u0131 Nas\u0131l De\u011ferlendirilir?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Hava Tahminin \u00d6nemi<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Hava tahminleri, g\u00fcnl\u00fck ya\u015fant\u0131m\u0131zda planlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ve etkinliklerimizi \u015fekillendirmemize yard\u0131mc\u0131 bir ara\u00e7 olarak hizmet eder. Bir mangal partisi d\u00fczenlemek, favori spor tak\u0131m\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k hava etkinli\u011finde desteklemek veya parlak bir hafta sonu sabah\u0131 y\u00fczmeye gitmek gibi etkinlikleri planlamam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olan tahminler, etkinliklerimizi \u00f6nceden planlamam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur. Di\u011fer yandan, u\u00e7u\u015fumuzun gecikme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 veya kas\u0131rga veya f\u0131rt\u0131na tehdidi gibi olas\u0131 riskler hakk\u0131nda bizi bilgilendirerek \u00f6nlemler almam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flarlar. Modern d\u00fcnyada, hava tahminlerinin g\u00fcc\u00fcnden faydalan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peki ya hava tahminleri ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olursa? Tahminlerdeki bir ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nas\u0131l tan\u0131mlars\u0131n\u0131z? Tahmin performans\u0131n\u0131n karma\u015f\u0131k do\u011fas\u0131na daha yak\u0131ndan bakal\u0131m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hava Tahminleri Nas\u0131l \u00dcretilir?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Hava tahminleri, d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda yer alan yer hava istasyonlar\u0131, batometreler, radyosondalar, radarlar ve uydu gibi \u00e7e\u015fitli sens\u00f6rlerden toplanan g\u00f6zlem verileri ile \u00fcretilir. Bu g\u00f6zlemler, say\u0131sal hava tahmini sistemlerinin daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesi i\u00e7in temel ko\u015fullard\u0131r. Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 ko\u015fullar\u0131 olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan bu veriler, say\u0131sal tahmin sistemleri taraf\u0131ndan kullan\u0131l\u0131r. Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve hesaplama g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn yard\u0131m\u0131yla, s\u0131cakl\u0131k, bas\u0131n\u00e7, r\u00fczgar h\u0131z\u0131 gibi bir\u00e7ok de\u011fi\u015fken i\u00e7in karma\u015f\u0131k diferansiyel denklemleri \u00e7\u00f6zebiliriz. Bu denklemleri zamansal aral\u0131klar i\u00e7inde (\u00f6rne\u011fin, 120 saatlik bir tahmin i\u00e7in) iterasyonlar yaparak, bir \u0131zgara a\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerindeki her nokta i\u00e7in tahminler olu\u015fturulur. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 genellikle g\u00fcnde 4 kez tekrarlan\u0131r ve en son g\u00f6zlemlerden yeni tahminler olu\u015fturulur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"forecasted<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Hava tahminlerinin belirli bir yer i\u00e7in ne kadar do\u011fru oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendirirken, de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fimiz hava de\u011fi\u015fkeninin t\u00fcr\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak farkl\u0131 istatistiksel y\u00f6ntemler kullan\u0131r\u0131z. \u00d6rne\u011fin, ya\u011f\u0131\u015f gibi belirli miktarlarda gelen de\u011fi\u015fkenler i\u00e7in tahminin ger\u00e7ek ko\u015fullarla ne s\u0131kl\u0131kla e\u015fle\u015fti\u011fini belirlemek i\u00e7in ko\u015fullu tablolar\u0131 kullanabiliriz. Di\u011fer yandan, s\u0131cakl\u0131k gibi s\u00fcrekli de\u011fi\u015fkenler i\u00e7in, ortalama mutlak hata ve Pearson korelasyon katsay\u0131s\u0131 gibi metrikleri kullanarak do\u011frulu\u011fu \u00f6l\u00e7eriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"contingency<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

G\u00fcnl\u00fck 5 g\u00fcnl\u00fck tahminleri 4 kez g\u00fcncellenen saatlik bir tahmin kullan\u0131yorsan\u0131z, belirli bir zaman damgas\u0131 i\u00e7in her kontrol etti\u011finizde 20 farkl\u0131 de\u011fer g\u00f6rebilirsiniz. Peki, hangisini tahminin “ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131” oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131rs\u0131n\u0131z?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hava Tahmin Do\u011frulu\u011funu \u00d6l\u00e7mek \u0130\u00e7in Farkl\u0131 Yakla\u015f\u0131mlar<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

G\u00fcncelleme Tabanl\u0131 De\u011ferlendirme<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Bu yakla\u015f\u0131mda, her veri g\u00fcncellendi\u011finde metrikler de\u011ferlendirilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 06Z’de 120 saatlik bir tahmin i\u00e7in tahminleri payla\u015f\u0131yorsak, sadece payla\u015f\u0131lan tahminin do\u011frulu\u011funu de\u011ferlendirir ve her payla\u015f\u0131lan tahmin i\u00e7in bir metrik de\u011feri elde ederiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"update<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

D\u00f6nem Tabanl\u0131 De\u011ferlendirme<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Metrikler belirli bir zaman dilimi i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lan t\u00fcm tahminleri toplayabilir ve tahmin s\u00fcresinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak do\u011frulu\u011fu hesaplayabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"period<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Tahmin S\u00fcresi Tabanl\u0131 De\u011ferlendirme<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Metrikler belirli bir zaman dilimi ve tahmin s\u00fcresi tabanl\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, bir hafta boyunca \u00fcretilen t\u00fcm tahminleri toplayabilir ve bu tahminlerin 2. g\u00fcn\u00fcnde (tahmin s\u00fcresi 24 ile 48 saat aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fen) benzer do\u011fruluk oran\u0131na sahip olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in do\u011frulu\u011fu hesaplayabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"forecast<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hava Tahminin \u00d6nemi Hava tahminleri, g\u00fcnl\u00fck ya\u015fant\u0131m\u0131zda planlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ve etkinliklerimizi \u015fekillendirmemize yard\u0131mc\u0131 bir ara\u00e7 olarak hizmet eder. Bir mangal partisi d\u00fczenlemek, favori spor tak\u0131m\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k hava etkinli\u011finde desteklemek veya parlak bir hafta sonu sabah\u0131 y\u00fczmeye gitmek gibi etkinlikleri planlamam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olan tahminler, etkinliklerimizi \u00f6nceden planlamam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur. Di\u011fer yandan, u\u00e7u\u015fumuzun gecikme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 veya kas\u0131rga veya… Continue reading Hava Tahminlerinin Performans\u0131n\u0131 Nas\u0131l De\u011ferlendirilir?<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":3343,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[7,46],"class_list":["post-3334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hava-durumu","tag-tr","tag-hava-zekasi","entry"],"acf":{"h1_tag":"Hava Tahminlerinin Performans\u0131n\u0131n Nas\u0131l De\u011ferlendirildi\u011fine Yak\u0131ndan Bakal\u0131m"},"yoast_head":"\nHava Tahminlerinin Performans\u0131n\u0131 Nas\u0131l De\u011ferlendirilir? - Buluttan Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Hava tahminlerinin performanslar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fini Buluttan Hava Zek\u00e2s\u0131 ile birlikte ke\u015ffedin.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hava Tahminlerinin Performans\u0131n\u0131 Nas\u0131l De\u011ferlendirilir? - Buluttan Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Hava tahminlerinin performanslar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fini Buluttan Hava Zek\u00e2s\u0131 ile birlikte ke\u015ffedin.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/editorial.buluttan.com\/?p=3334\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Buluttan Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-04-18T07:42:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-04-18T07:50:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/buluttan-cdn.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com\/images\/weather-blog\/2024\/04\/evaluation-of-weather-forecasting-featured-image.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"960\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"B\u00fc\u015fra \u00d6zt\u00fcrk\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"B\u00fc\u015fra \u00d6zt\u00fcrk\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/editorial.buluttan.com\/?p=3334\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/editorial.buluttan.com\/?p=3334\",\"name\":\"Hava Tahminlerinin Performans\u0131n\u0131 Nas\u0131l De\u011ferlendirilir? 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